Valspar Championship Betting Tips

The Valspar Championship is played annually on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Florida.

The tournament was founded in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Classic. From 2003 to 2006, the event had a slot in the schedule as the last full-field event before the Tour Championship.

Course Overview

The topography of the Copperhead Golf Course in unlike what one would expect from Florida golf. The layout is defined by the rolling terrain, with many uphill and downhill tee shots, elevation changes and tree-lined fairways.

At more than 7,300 yards from the back tees, it is also known for being a lengthy challenge. The golf course utilizes the natural water hazards of lakes and ponds that are scattered throughout the property.

Copperhead boasts the usual serving of four Par 5s but unusally for a Par 71 it has five Par 3s, three of which are found on the back nine. The final three-hole stretch of the Copperhead Course is known as the ‘The Snake Pit‘ and is one of the toughest finishes at a non-major. It is a 1,120-yard collection of hazards stretched over three holes.

The 2011 Champion, Gary Woodland best sums up the ‘Snake Pit’ –

“There is not a birdie hole the last three holes. If you’re two back and have signed your scorecard and the leaders are still out there, you’re definitely hanging around to see what happens.”

Copperhead is a complete test of golf and those with aspirations of winning will have to drive accurately, hit a high percentage of greens in regulation and putt well. An ability to play in blustery conditions is essential.

2020 Valspar Championship | Cancelled

The 2020 edition of the tournament was cancelled as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

2019 Valspar Championship | Paul Casey

In 2019, Paul Casey successfully defended his Valspar Championship title for his third PGA Tour victory. The Englishman closed with a final round +1 (72) for a -8 (276) total for the tournament. It was enough for a one stroke victory over Jason Kokrak and Louis Oosthuizen.

"Today wasn't easy. Last year's win was so big. It felt like my first victory as a pro. I'm getting older, but I feel like I'm getting better."

Paul Casey

Superb ball-striking was key to Casey’s success. He finished 1^st in the Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green category which equated to a gain of 11.238 strokes or nearly 97% of his overall gain. Other stats for the week include 9^th for Driving Accuracy, 11^th for Driving Distance, T5 for GIR and 43^rd for Strokes Gained Putting.

2018 Valspar Championship | Paul Casey

The 2018 champion, Paul Casey, carded a final round -6 (65) to finish on -10 (274) one stroke clear of Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods. It was the Englishman’s second PGA Tour victory having won the Shell Houston Open back in 2009.

"I've won a few times in Europe, but to take this long to get my second victory on the PGA Tour, it's emotional. I've worked so hard, I'm so happy for it"

Paul Casey

Tee-to-green is where the magic happened for Casey. Three quarters of his overall strokes gained for the tournament came in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, which equated to a gain of 9.394 strokes. Casey finished the week T68 for Driving Accuracy, 17th for Driving Distance, T30 for GIR and 15th in Strokes Gained Putting.

2017 Valspar Championship | Adam Hadwin

In 2017, Adam Hadwin survived a late scare to claim his first PGA Tour title. He threw away a two shot lead on the 16th hole hitting his tee shot into the water. However, he kept his nerve to close with two pars for an even par 71 to narrowly edge out Patri, ck Cantlay.

The Canadian's iron play laid the foundation for his victory, gaining a total of 8.196 strokes on the field average from approach shots. This was duly complimented by the flat-stick gaining another 6.881 strokes over the four rounds. He finished the week T27 for Driving Accuracy, 37th for Driving Distance, T5 for GIR and 4th in Strokes Gained Putting.

2016 Valspar Championship | Charl Schwartzel

In 2016, Charl Schwartzel won the Valspar Championship in a playoff with Bill Haas. It was his first win on Tour since winning the Green Jacket in 2011. He carded a final round 67 which was 5.2 strokes better than the field average.

The South African won on the strength of his approach shots which accounted for 61 percent of his total gain on the field. Schwartzel finished the week T29 for Driving Distance, T65 for Driving Accuracy, T10 for Greens in Regulation and T12 for Strokes Gained Putting.

Valspar Championship Winning Formula

The following table details the Average Strokes Gained in each of the key strokes gained categories for the past three champions of the Valspar Championship.

Graphing the above Average Strokes Gained gives a visual check on the likely key areas required for success at this week's Valspar Championship.

Valspar Championship Tips

Corey Conners 20/1 (E/W) -sticking with the Canadian again this week after placing T4 for PGAgolfbets in the RBC Heritage. This is his second visit to the Valspar Championship, finishing T16 on his debut appearance in 2018. Same logic applies again this week, his appearance week after week on leaderboards makes him too hard to ignore. His last five results read 3^rd (API), 7^th (PLAYERS), T14 (Valero Texas Open), 8^th (Masters) and T4 (RBC Heritage). It also helps that he places 2^nd in this week's Stats Analysis table. His superior tee-to-green game will stand him in good stead around the Copperhead Course. His stats with the flat-stick are trending nicely also and is surely going to land his second PGA Tour title sooner rather than later. Standout pick.

Jason Kokrak 30/1 (E/W) - has three Top 10 finishes in his last five starts around the famed Copperhead Course including a runner-up finish last year. Has four Top 10's from sixteen starts this season including a victory at the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek. Despite weak Proximity stats, he still manages to feature inside the Top 30 in this week's Stats Analysis. He is also 30^th on Tour for Driving Distance and 24^th for GIR. With a win now under his belt, the pressure to perform is not as pronounced and can free-wheel a bit more on a course that clearly suits his eye. Good value each way pick.