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Players Championship tips & predictions

Golf betting tips: Preview and tips for the 2022 PLAYERS Championship

The Players Championship began in 1974 and it is the flagship event on the PGA Tour. It is often referred to as the unofficial “fifth major” due to its prestige.

The tournament offers the highest prize fund of any event on the PGA Tour with the winner pocketing a cool $2.7M. The host course is the TPC Stadium Course at Sawgrass which was constructed in 1980. It was created specifically for the purpose of hosting this event and has been the tournament’s home since 1982.

Course Overview

TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye design that requires an accurate game. It is a standard issue Par 72 (36-36) that can stretch 7,215 yards. The iconic Par 3 17th, with its dramatic island green, is one of the most recognised holes in golf. It is a fine line between success and failure on this hole and can often dictate the outcome of the tournament.

In 2006 all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation and sub-air systems were installed. The result is that the firmness of the smaller than average sized greens can be controlled in any weather conditions.

Course experience around Sawgrass is essential and recent champions required numerous appearances prior to their victories. Winners here tend to finish in the Top 10 for Greens in Regulation as well as featuring strongly for Total Driving. This permutation tells you that the course is a good test of golf that suits ball strikers.

History also tells us that scoring on the set of four Par 5s is crucial. Scrambling is also a key statistics to consider this week.

The PLAYERS Championship 2021 | Justin Thomas

Last year, Justin Thomas captured his 14th PGA Tour title in winning the 2021 PLAYERS Championship. JT shot a 64-68 over the weekend, tied for the lowest closing 36 holes by a champion in tournament history. He finished the tournament on a score of -14 (274) for a one stroke victory over Englishman, Lee Westwood.

The win made JT just the fourth player to win the Players Championship, a major championship, a World Golf Championship event and the FedEx Cup after Tiger Woods, Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy.

“It’s a huge championship, very special. It’s a tournament I’ve wanted to win, a tournament that I truly did feel like I was going to win at some point, and hopefully multiple times. I love the golf course”.

Justin Thomas

A ball-striking masterclass was key to the victory, topping the pile for Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. This equated to a gain of 12.873 strokes over the field average or almost 90% of his overall strokes gained for the tournament. He also finished 10th in Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee and 5th for Strokes Gained Approach-The-Green.

Other stats for the tournament include T62 for Driving Accuracy, T33 for Driving Distance, T25 for GIR and 42nd in Strokes Gained Putting.

The PLAYERS Championship 2020 | Cancelled

The 47th edition of The Players Championship was canceled after round one in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hideki Matsuyama held a two stroke lead after the first round having equaled the course record of -9 (63). Half the $15 million purse was split equally among the players who competed, giving each golfer a $52,000 share of the money

The PLAYERS Championship 2019 | Rory McIlroy

In 2019, Rory McIlroy closed with final round -2 (70) to capture the coveted Players Championship. He finished on a total -16 (272) to edge out Jim Furyk by one stroke. The Northern Irishman was one of eight players to have at least a share of the lead in the final round. Birdies on the 15th and 16th were pivotal for McIlroy to get the job done having bogeyed the 14th to surrender the lead.

“This was one of the tournaments that I desperately wanted to win and get on my CV”

Rory McIlroy

No surprise that it was tee-to-green which laid the foundation for the victory. McIlroy finished 1st in the SG:Tee-To-Green category gaining a mouth-watering 13.262 strokes on the field average for the week. Other stats include T49 for Driving Accuracy, 5th for Driving Distance, T3 for GIR and 45th in Strokes Gained Putting.

The PLAYERS Championship 2018 | Webb Simpson

Webb Simpson captured the 2018 Players Championship to win his fifth PGA Tour title. Simpson was seven shots clear after the third round which is the largest 54-hole margin in the tournament’s history. He carded a final round +1 (73) which was enough to get the job done with four shots to spare. It was his first win on Tour since October 2013.

“I didn’t have my best stuff but it was good enough”

Webb Simpson

Simpson’s putting delivered almost two-thirds of his strokes gained on the field average for the week. He finished first in Strokes Gained Putting gaining 9.368 on the field. He was also 1st for Driving Accuracy, 71st for Driving Distance, T5 for GIR and 3rd for Putts per GIR.

The PLAYERS Championship 2017 | Si Woo Kim

The 2017 champion, Si Woo Kim of South Korea, became the youngest winner of the Players Championship at 21 years of age. He was the only player to go bogey free in the final round closing with a -3 (69). It was enough for a three stroke victory over Ian Poulter and Louis Oosthuizen.

Kim finished 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, gaining a massive 14.471 strokes on the field average for the tournament. He also finished the week T15 for Driving Accuracy, T10 for Driving Distance, T27 for GIR and 37th in Strokes Gained Putting.

The PLAYERS Championship 2016 | Jason Day

The 2016 champion, Jason Day, captured the Players Championship for his third win of 2016. His impressive four-shot victory was driven by gains in all areas of his game. Putting contributed 34 percent of his total strokes gained on the field, with approach shots accounting for 31 percent and short game shots another 23 percent.

The PLAYERS Championship 2015 | Rickie Fowler

In 2015, Rickie Fowler, closed with four birdies and an eagle in his final six holes for the best finish in Players Championship history. Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner matched Fowler at -12 for a three-hole aggregate score playoff.

Garcia was eliminated after the three holes but Fowler and Kisner could not be separated. They played the 17th for a sudden death playoff which Fowler birdied for his first PGA Tour victory in three years. For the tournament, approach shots contributed 50 percent of Fowler’s total gain against the field with putting contributing another 25 percent.

The PLAYERS Championship Winning Formula

The following table details the breakdown of the Strokes Gained in each of the strokes gained categories for each of the past four champions of The PLAYERS Championship.

YearPlayerSGOTTSGAPRSGARGSGPSGT2G
2017Si Woo Kim5.460 (2nd)4.064 (18th)4.947 (3rd)1.172 (37th)14.471 (2nd)
2018Webb Simpson1.466 (32nd)-0.762 (62nd)5.029 (3rd)9.368 (1st)5.733 (16th)
2019Rory McIlroy5.309 (2nd)6.484 (6th)1.469 (25th)0.663 (45th)13.262 (1st)
2021Justin Thomas3.453 (10th)6.404 (5th)3.019 (12th)1.632 (42nd)12.873 (1st)
AVERAGE3.922 (12th)4.048 (23rd)3.616 (11th)3.209 (31st)11.585 (5th)

Graphing the average in each of the strokes gained categories gives a ‘visual’ for the PLAYERS Championship “winning formula”.

The above tells us that TPC Sawgrass is a course that will test every aspect of a player’s game to the full.

The 17th Hole at TPC Sawgrass

PLAYERS Championship Tips

Hideki Matsuyama golf betting tipsHideki Matsuyama 28/1 (E/W) – no surprise that the Japanese maestro is a regular at the PLAYERS with his best finish in the recent past a T8 in 2019. He equaled the course record of -9 (63) in Round 1 of the 2020 edition of the tournament before it was cancelled due to Covid. His form this season is impressive to say the least. The 29 year old is already a multiple winner with victories in the ZOZO Championship and Sony Open. The tee-to-green machine places inside the Top 10 in this week’s Stats Analysis. He is also 18th on Tour for Birdie Average and 21st for GIR. TPC Sawgrass has been kind to proficient ball-strikers. He fits the same archetype for success.

Daniel Berger golf betting tipsDaniel Berger 28/1 (E/W) – the Florida native finished 9th in last year’s edition of the PLAYERS. Has 2 x Top 10’s from 10 starts this season including a solo 4th in his last outing at the Honda Classic. Statistically balanced, he places 4th in this week’s Stats Analysis, no mean feat considering the field depth for the so-called ‘Fifth Major‘. He is also 4th on Tour for Driving Accuracy and 11th for Scoring Average. Will there be scar-tissue after throwing away a 5-shot lead in the final round of the Honda? Yes. But he is a consummate-pro with multiple wins on Tour so not an issue. All things considered, decent value.

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