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PLAYERS Championship Betting Tips: Unveiling Winning Strategies for TPC Sawgrass

Players Championship tips & predictions

Welcome to PGAgolfbets, your go-to destination for making informed golf bets and fantasy golf picks. In this post, we delve into the prestigious PLAYERS Championship, offering valuable insights, betting tips, and a detailed analysis of the renowned TPC Sawgrass.

PLAYERS Championship Overview

The PLAYERS Championship stands as one of the most anticipated events on the PGA Tour, attracting top-tier talent and delivering unparalleled excitement. Known for its challenging field and iconic moments, this tournament demands a strategic approach for both players and bettors alike.

The Players Championship began in 1974 and it is the flagship event on the PGA Tour. It is often referred to as the unofficial “fifth major” due to its prestige.

The tournament offers the highest prize fund of any event on the PGA Tour with the winner pocketing a cool $4.5M. The host course is the TPC Stadium Course at Sawgrass which was constructed in 1980. It was created specifically for the purpose of hosting this event and has been the tournament’s home since 1982.

Host Course – TPC Sawgrass

TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye design that requires an accurate game. It is a standard issue Par 72 (36-36) that can stretch 7,275 yards. The iconic Par 3 17th, with its dramatic island green, is one of the most recognized holes in golf. It is a fine line between success and failure on this hole and can often dictate the outcome of the tournament.

In 2006 all the tees, fairways and greens were stripped and new drainage, irrigation and sub-air systems were installed. The result is that the firmness of the smaller than average sized greens can be controlled in any weather conditions.

TPC Sawgrass boasts several standout features from a playing perspective. Here are three that truly define the golfing experience on the Stadium Course:

  1. The Infamous 17th Hole (Island Green):
    • Without a doubt, the 17th hole is a game-changer. This Par-3 features an island green surrounded by water, making it one of the most nerve-wracking and iconic holes in golf. It requires precision and nerves of steel to successfully land your ball on the green, adding an element of drama to every round.
  2. Demanding Shot Selection:
    • TPC Sawgrass challenges players with a variety of shot requirements. From long, open fairways to tight doglegs, the course demands strategic thinking and precise shot-making. The diversity of holes ensures that players need to bring a well-rounded game to navigate the challenges presented by Pete Dye’s masterful design.
  3. Strategic Bunkering:
    • Bunkers at TPC Sawgrass are strategically placed to test a player’s ability to navigate hazards effectively. The size, depth, and placement of these bunkers make approach shots and tee shots equally challenging. Golfers must carefully consider their club selection and shot trajectory to avoid the well-placed bunkers and optimize their chances for a successful round.

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) Scorecard

HoleParYardsHoleParYards
14423104424
25532115558
33177124369
44384133181
54471144481
64393154470
74451165523
83237173137
95602184462
Out363670In363605
Par72
Total7275
Par#ShortestLongestAverage
3’s4137237183
4’s10369481433
5’s4523602554
  • Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 88
  • Number of Water Hazards: 17
  • Number of Holes Water is in Play: 17

PLAYERS Championship Betting Tips: Decoding the Key Performance Statistics

Our stats analysis takes a deep dive into the Strokes Gained data of previous winners at TPC Sawgrass. From accurate driving to exceptional putting, we identify the key areas that are likely to play a pivotal role in determining success at this challenging course.

Analyzing the Average Strokes Gained data for the past six champions at the PLAYERS Championship reveals key insights into the crucial factors influencing success at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course. Focusing on the statistical trends, we can pinpoint key performance indicators (KPIs) that significantly impact players’ overall performance.

  1. Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SGT2G):
    • The SGT2G category consistently emerges as a pivotal factor in success. Notably, winners like Si Woo Kim (2017), Rory McIlroy (2019) and Justin Thomas (2020) gained a substantial percentage of their strokes in this category. The TPC Sawgrass layout demands precision off the tee and effective long-game strategies, making SGT2G a critical KPI.
  2. Strokes Gained Approach (SGAPR):
    • Successive champions, from 2019 to 2023, showcased a positive impact in the SGAPR category, emphasizing the significance of strong approach play. The average finishing position for the winners in this five year period is 5th. The course’s challenging green complexes demand accuracy, and players who excelled in approach shots, such as Justin Thomas in 2021 and Cameron Smith in 2022, reaped the rewards.
  3. Strokes Gained Putting (SGP):
    • While putting may have a lower percentage impact compared to Tee to Green and Approach, it remains a crucial factor. Winners like Web Simpson (2018) and Cameron Smith (2020) demonstrated a notable edge in SGP, showcasing the importance of a solid putting performance on TPC Sawgrass’ undulating greens.

PLAYERS Championship Winners (2010 – 2023)

YearPlayerScoreTo par
2023Scottie Scheffler271-17
2022Cameron Smith275-13
2021Justin Thomas274-14
2020Cancelled | Covid-19
2019Rory McIlroy272-16
2018Webb Simpson270-18
2017Si Woo Kim278-10
2016Jason Day273-15
2015Rickie Fowler276-12
2014Martin Kaymer275-13
2013Tiger Woods275-13
2012Matt Kuchar275-13
2011KJ Choi275-13
2010Tim Clark272-16

PLAYERS Championship Winning Formula

The following table details the Average Strokes Gained in each of the key strokes gained categories for the past six champions of the PLAYERS Championship.

Last 6 Champions
Strokes Gained Category
Average Strokes GainedAverage Finishing
Position SG Category
SGOTT2.58820th
SGAPR3.29217th
SGARG2.67911th
SGP2.62429th
SGT2G8.5589th

Graphing the above Average Strokes Gained gives a visual check on the likely key areas required for success at this week’s PLAYERS Championship.

PLAYERS Championship Betting Tips: Elevate Your Game

In summary, players aspiring to triumph at the PLAYERS Championship will need a razor-sharp Tee to Green game, ensuring accuracy and effectiveness in approach shots. A strong emphasis on putting proficiency is also required, as it can make a difference in closely contested tournaments. While the data indicates fluctuations in the impact of each category, an all-encompassing strategy that balances SGT2G, SGAPR, and SGP is likely to be the key to success at TPC Sawgrass.

Course experience around Sawgrass is essential and recent champions required numerous appearances prior to their victories. Winners here tend to finish in the Top 10 for Greens in Regulation as well as featuring strongly for Total Driving. This permutation tells you that the course is a good test of golf that suits ball strikers. History also tells us that scoring on the set of four Par 5s is crucial. Scrambling is also a key statistics to consider this week.

PLAYERS Championship Betting Tips & Predictions 2024

At PGAgolfbets, we don’t just stop at insights; we provide our own golf betting tips to further enhance your chances of success. Compare our tips against your selections to refine your strategy and potentially predict standout performers for the tournament. Our goal is to empower you with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions, turning your passion for golf into a winning betting strategy.

Max Homa golf betting tips

Max Homa 28/1 (E/W) – the California native followed a T13 in the 2022 edition of the PLAYERS with a T6 last year. Has 4 x Top 20 finishes from six starts this season including a T8 in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. His early season heater translates to his stats, placing 10th in this week’s Stats Analysis. By his lofty standards there is an expectation each time he tees it up. Has shown flashes of brilliance recently that would suggest his ‘A-game‘ is not that far away and if you are to finish ahead of Scottie, then nothing less than ‘A-game‘ is required. Best value at top end of market.

Hideki Matsuyama golf betting tips

Hideki Matsuyama 28/1 (E/W) – has good history around TPC Sawgrass which includes a T8 in 2019 and a solo 5th last year. A T12 in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was preceded with a victory in the Genesis Invitational. Weak SGP stats puts the Japanese maestro just outside the Top 30 in this week’s Stats Analysis. His season to date stats in SGP probably don’t accurately reflect where his game is at currently. He was 24th in SGP last week and 3rd when he won at Riviera. It is wise to pay attention when his eye is ‘in‘ with the flat-stick and if he is in the groove come tee time Thursday then he will be a force to be reckoned with. Decent each way value.

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